Quantitative Trading · Labor Market · v1.5

NFP Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — ADP · Jobless Claims · Equities · USD

Paris --:--:--

🗽 NY --:--:--

⏳ Next NFP: --

① Select Current Fed Regime (critical — changes the expected market reaction)

⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: Strong jobs = Fed stays hawkish = yields up, USD up, stocks initially down or mixed. Standard NFP logic applies — strong ADP, low claims, equities up and DXY up the day before = beat likely = buy signal.

Leading Indicator Inputs

One click fills Equities, DXY, ADP, Claims, NFP & Unemployment plus the consensus forecasts, then scores. Nothing to type.

ADP Private Payrolls — Wednesday Before NFP (K jobs) HIGH WEIGHT ×2⚡ Auto

Released Wed 08:15 ET. Scored against its forecast once ADP has printed; otherwise on its level — above 200K = strong, below 100K = weak. TradingEconomics ↗

ADP Forecast (K) — for surprise calculation CONTEXT✋ Manual

The market's ADP consensus — auto-filled from the economic calendar once this month's ADP has printed. Until then ADP is scored on its level.

Day-before signals (run Thursday, before NFP Friday)

Initial Jobless Claims — Thursday 08:30 ET (K) HIGH WEIGHT ×2⚡ Auto

Below 220K = strong labor market (bullish). Above 260K = warning (bearish). TradingEconomics ↗

S&P 500 (ES futures) % Change — live day change MEDIUM ×1⚡ Auto

Live day change of ES futures at the moment you press Auto-fill — run it late Thursday for the pre-NFP reading. Yahoo Finance ^GSPC ↗

USD / DXY Index % Change — live day change MEDIUM ×1⚡ Auto

DXY up = dollar strengthening = market expects strong NFP (in hike regime). Investing.com DXY ↗

Pulls S&P (ES) and DXY day % change from the live data worker (delayed ~15 min). Values are locked — they always come from the live feed.

Post-release (optional — for surprise analysis)

NFP Forecast (K) ✋

NFP Actual (K) ⚡

Unemp. Rate % ⚡

NFP Forecast auto-fills from the economic-calendar consensus when published (~1–2 weeks ahead). NFP Actual & Unemployment auto-fill from FRED after the 08:30 ET release.

Pulls latest ADP, Jobless Claims, NFP month-change and Unemployment Rate from FRED (St. Louis Fed). Forecasts fill from the economic calendar.

Signal Score & Breakdown

—/10

Awaiting Input

Press AUTO-FILL ALL LIVE DATA & SCORE — every input fills itself

Expected Reaction Playbook

Compute a score to see the expected market reaction and trade plan for the current Fed regime.

Score Breakdown by Indicator

Run analysis to see breakdown

Session History

NFP Surprise Analysis

Post-NFP Market Reaction

Indicator Reference Guide — What Each Input Means

Indicator	Bullish (NFP Beat likely)	Bearish (NFP Miss likely)	Weight	Released
ADP Payrolls Private sector jobs	Beat forecast · Above 200K	Miss forecast · Below 100K	×2 HIGH	Wednesday 08:15 ET
Jobless Claims Weekly layoffs	Below 220K = few layoffs	Above 260K = rising job losses	×2 HIGH	Thursday 08:30 ET
Equities (S&P 500) Risk sentiment	Up % = risk-on, jobs confidence	Down % = risk-off, jobs fear	×1 MED	Thursday close
USD / DXY Dollar strength	Up % = market pricing strong NFP	Down % = market pricing weak NFP	×1 MED	Thursday close

 ⚠ ADP correlation with official NFP is inconsistent — strong ADP can create false confidence. Always cross-check with Jobless Claims. Score 6.5–10 = beat likely (Buy signal in a hike regime). Score 0–3.5 = miss likely (Sell signal). Between 3.5 and 6.5 = no clear edge — stand aside. 

Where to Find Each Input

WED 08:15 ET

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ADP Employment Report

Private payrolls estimate, shown in thousands (K) and compared to its forecast. A surprise beat/miss is more important than the absolute number.

tradingeconomics.com ↗

THU 08:30 ET

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Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly new unemployment filings. Below 220K = healthy labor market. Use 4-week average for smoother signal. Released same day as your Thursday close.

tradingeconomics.com/jobless-claims ↗

THU CLOSE