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Quantitative Trading · Labor Market · v1.1

NFP Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — ADP · Jobless Claims · Equities · USD

Paris --:--:--
🗽 NY --:--:--
Next NFP: --
① Select Current Fed Regime (critical — changes signal direction)
Hike/Restrictive mode: Strong jobs = Fed stays hawkish = yields up, USD up, stocks initially down or mixed. Standard NFP logic applies — equities up on Thursday = market expects beat = buy signal.
Leading Indicator Inputs
One click fills Equities, DXY, ADP, Claims, NFP & Unemployment, then scores. Only the forecasts stay manual.
ADP Private Payrolls — Wednesday Before NFP (K jobs) HIGH WEIGHT ×2⚡ Auto
K
Released Wed 08:15 ET. Enter actual jobs added. Forecast ~180K = neutral. Above 200K = strong signal. TradingEconomics ↗
ADP Forecast (K) — for surprise calculation CONTEXT✋ Manual
K
When: before the Wednesday 08:15 ET ADP print — type the consensus estimate (e.g. from TradingEconomics / Investing.com).

Thursday signals (day before NFP)
Initial Jobless Claims — Thursday 08:30 ET (K) HIGH WEIGHT ×2⚡ Auto
K
Below 220K = strong labor market (bullish). Above 260K = warning (bearish). TradingEconomics ↗
S&P 500 / Equities % Change — Thursday Close MEDIUM ×1⚡ Auto
%
Thursday close % change. Yahoo Finance ^GSPC ↗
USD / DXY Index % Change — Thursday Close MEDIUM ×1⚡ Auto
%
DXY up = dollar strengthening = market expects strong NFP (in hike regime). Investing.com DXY ↗
Pulls S&P (ES) and DXY day % change from the live data worker (delayed ~15 min). You can still type your own values.

Post-release (optional — for surprise analysis)
NFP Forecast (K)
NFP Actual (K)
Unemp. Rate %
NFP Forecast = Manual: type the consensus before the Friday 08:30 ET release (e.g. TradingEconomics). NFP Actual & Unemployment auto-fill from FRED after release.
Pulls latest ADP, Jobless Claims, NFP month-change and Unemployment Rate from FRED (St. Louis Fed). Only the forecasts stay manual.
Signal Score & Breakdown
/10
Awaiting Input
Enter indicators on the left and click Compute
Expected Reaction Playbook
Compute a score to see the expected market reaction and trade plan for the current Fed regime.

Score Breakdown by Indicator
Run analysis to see breakdown

Session History


Post-NFP Market Reaction
Indicator Reference Guide — What Each Input Means
IndicatorBullish (NFP Beat likely)Bearish (NFP Miss likely)WeightReleased
ADP Payrolls
Private sector jobs
Beat forecast · Above 200KMiss forecast · Below 100K×2 HIGHWednesday 08:15 ET
Jobless Claims
Weekly layoffs
Below 220K = few layoffsAbove 260K = rising job losses×2 HIGHThursday 08:30 ET
Equities (S&P 500)
Risk sentiment
Up % = risk-on, jobs confidenceDown % = risk-off, jobs fear×1 MEDThursday close
USD / DXY
Dollar strength
Up % = market pricing strong NFPDown % = market pricing weak NFP×1 MEDThursday close
⚠ ADP correlation with official NFP is inconsistent — strong ADP can create false confidence. Always cross-check with Jobless Claims. Score of 7–10 = strong signal. 4–6 = use caution. Below 4 = no trade.
Where to Find Each Input
Upcoming NFP Dates  ·  First Friday of each month · 08:30 ET / 14:30 Paris

Verify at bls.gov or tradingeconomics.com/calendar