USD / DXY Index % Change — Thursday Close MEDIUM ×1
%
DXY up = dollar strengthening = market expects strong NFP (in hike regime). Investing.com DXY ↗
Earlier in the week
ISM Services Employment Sub-Index SUPPORTING ×1
Above 50 = expanding employment in services (bullish for NFP). Below 50 = contracting. ISM ↗
Post-release (optional — for surprise analysis)
NFP Forecast (K)
NFP Actual (K)
Unemp. Rate %
Signal Score & Breakdown
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Score Breakdown by Indicator
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Session History
NFP Surprise Analysis
Indicator Reference Guide — What Each Input Means
Indicator
Bullish (NFP Beat likely)
Bearish (NFP Miss likely)
Weight
Released
ADP Payrolls Private sector jobs
Beat forecast · Above 200K
Miss forecast · Below 100K
×2 HIGH
Wednesday 08:15 ET
Jobless Claims Weekly layoffs
Below 220K = few layoffs
Above 260K = rising job losses
×2 HIGH
Thursday 08:30 ET
Equities (S&P 500) Risk sentiment
Up % = risk-on, jobs confidence
Down % = risk-off, jobs fear
×1 MED
Thursday close
USD / DXY Dollar strength
Up % = market pricing strong NFP
Down % = market pricing weak NFP
×1 MED
Thursday close
ISM Services Employment Business hiring intent
Above 52 = services expanding staff
Below 48 = services cutting staff
×1 SUPPORT
Earlier in week
⚠ ADP correlation with official NFP is inconsistent — strong ADP can create false confidence. Always cross-check with Jobless Claims. Score of 7–10 = strong signal. 4–6 = use caution. Below 4 = no trade.