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Quantitative Trading · Inflation Analysis · v1.5

CPI Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — PPI · PCE · Michigan · Breakeven · Oil · Bonds · Equities

Paris --:--:--
🗽 NY --:--:--
⏳ Next CPI: --
① Select Current Fed Regime (changes how to interpret signals)
⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: High CPI = more hikes = bond prices fall (yields up), stocks fall. Both assets down day before = market pricing hot CPI = Buy Signal. Both up = pricing cool CPI = Sell Signal.
Leading Indicator Inputs
One click fills PPI, Core PCE, Michigan, 5Y Breakeven, Oil, 2Y Bond, Equities, CPI & Core CPI, plus the CPI & PPI consensus forecasts, then scores.
~1–2 weeks before CPI (strongest predictors)
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM % — Previous MonthHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
PPI leads CPI by ~1 month. Above +0.4% MoM = strong pipeline inflation (or a beat of more than 0.2pp against its forecast). TradingEconomics ↗ · Released ~1 week before CPI
PPI Forecast MoM % — for surpriseCONTEXT⚡ Auto
%
The market's consensus for the PPI print shown above — auto-filled from the economic calendar once that PPI has been released. Before that, PPI is scored on its level.
Core PCE MoM % — Fed's Preferred MeasureHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
The Fed targets PCE at 2% annualized. Above 0.25% MoM = hawkish pressure. BEA / TradingEconomics ↗
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations %MED ×1.5⚡ Auto
%
Consumer inflation expectations. Above 3.5% = elevated expectations → hot CPI likely. UMich ↗
5-Year Breakeven Inflation % — Market-ImpliedMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
The bond market's own 5-year inflation forecast (from TIPS). Above ~2.5% = market pricing hotter inflation. FRED T5YIE ↗
Crude Oil (WTI) MoM % — Energy PipelineMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Monthly change in WTI crude. Rising oil lifts the headline CPI energy component. FRED WTI ↗
Day before CPI (market positioning signals)
2-Year Treasury Bond PRICE % Change — Day BeforeMED ×1.5⚡ Auto
%
Use PRICE % change (not yield!). Price down = yield up = market pricing hot CPI. Yahoo ZT=F ↗ or Investing.com ↗
Equities (S&P 500) % Change — Day BeforeMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Both bonds AND equities down day before = classic hot CPI signal. Yahoo ^GSPC ↗
Post-release (optional — surprise analysis)
CPI Forecast YoY % ⚡
CPI Actual YoY % ⚡
Core CPI YoY % ⚡
CPI Forecast auto-fills from the economic-calendar consensus. CPI Actual & Core CPI auto-fill from FRED after the 08:30 ET release.
Signal Score & Breakdown
—/10
Awaiting Input
Press AUTO-FILL ALL LIVE DATA & SCORE — every input fills itself
Expected Reaction Playbook
Press AUTO-FILL to see which markets the signal points to in the current Fed regime.
Score Breakdown — Hot vs Cool Inflation Signal
Run analysis to see breakdown
Session History
Indicator Reference — What Each Input Signals
IndicatorHot CPI Signal (Buy in hike regime)Cool CPI Signal (Sell in hike regime)WeightReleased
PPI MoM
Producer prices → feed into CPI ~1 month later		Above +0.4% (or beats forecast by more than 0.2pp) — pipeline inflation risingZero or negative (or misses forecast by 0.2pp or more) — cost pressures easing×2 HIGH~1 week before CPI
Core PCE MoM
Fed's actual inflation target		Above 0.25% MoM — Fed hawkish pressureBelow 0.15% MoM — deflation trend×2 HIGHMonth before (PCE lags)
Michigan Expectations
Consumer inflation forecasts — self-fulfilling		Above 3.5% — consumers pricing in high inflation2.8% or lower — anchored expectations×1.5 MED~10 days before CPI
2Y Bond Price
Market rate expectations (inverted from yield)		Price down (yield up) — market pricing rate hikePrice up (yield down) — market pricing cuts×1.5 MEDDay before CPI
Equities
Risk sentiment — rate fear		Down — pricing hot CPI / rate hike fearUp — pricing cool CPI / Fed done×1 SUPPORTDay before CPI
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Bond-market inflation pricing (from TIPS)		Above 2.6% — market pricing hot inflation2.1% or lower — soft expectations×1 MEDReal-time (daily)
Oil (WTI) MoM
Energy → headline CPI		Above +3% MoM — energy lifting headline CPIBelow −3% MoM — energy easing headline CPI×1 MEDReal-time (monthly avg)
📌 Score 6.5–10 = hot CPI signal (Buy in hike regime). Score 0–3.5 = cool CPI signal (Sell in hike regime). Between 3.5 and 6.5 = no clear directional edge. Core CPI (ex food & energy) is more important than headline — always check both after release.
Where to Find Each Input
~1 WK BEFORE CPI
🏭
PPI — Producer Price Index
Released by BLS ~1 week before CPI. Use MoM % change. PPI feeds into CPI 1 month later — the strongest leading indicator of CPI direction.
tradingeconomics.com ↗
MONTH BEFORE
🏦
Core PCE — Fed's Target
Fed's preferred inflation metric. Above 2% YoY (or >0.25% MoM) = Fed stays hawkish. Released by the BEA late each month for prior month.
bea.gov / tradingeconomics.com ↗
~10 DAYS BEFORE
🎓
Michigan Inflation Expectations
University of Michigan survey — 1-year consumer inflation outlook. Above 3.5% = elevated. Self-fulfilling: high expectations drive actual inflation higher.
tradingeconomics.com ↗
DAY BEFORE CPI
💵
2-Year Treasury Bond Price
Use PRICE % change, NOT yield. Ticker ZT=F (2-year note futures) on Yahoo Finance. Even a 0.1% move is meaningful — the score is full at 0.25%. Price and yield move inversely. Price down = yield up = hot CPI priced in.
finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZT=F ↗
DAY BEFORE CPI
📈
S&P 500 — Equities
Closing % change day before CPI. Both bonds AND equities down = classic hot CPI dual-signal. Use as confirmation, not primary signal.
finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GSPC ↗
CPI RELEASE
🏛️
BLS — US CPI Official
Released 08:30 ET. Actual and Forecast fill themselves for the surprise analysis. Always check Core CPI (ex food & energy) — it drives Fed reaction more than headline.
bls.gov/schedule ↗
US CPI Release Dates · 08:30 ET / 14:30 Paris

Verify at bls.gov · France CPI (INSEE) at tradingeconomics.com/france · 08:45 Paris