① Select Current Fed Regime (changes how to interpret signals)
⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: A hot Core PCE = more hikes = bonds & stocks under pressure. Hot PCE = hawkish = Buy Signal; cool PCE = Sell Signal. Core PCE is the number the Fed reacts to most.
Leading Indicator Inputs
One click fills Core CPI, PPI, CPI, Import Prices & Wages, plus the Core PCE actual & consensus forecast, then scores.
Released before Core PCE — every predictor is already out
Core CPI MoM % — top predictor of Core PCEHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
~75% of Core PCE tracks Core CPI. Above +0.3% MoM = hot PCE likely. FRED CPILFESL ↗ · Released ~2 weeks before PCE
PPI (Final Demand) MoM % — the PCE-specific bitsHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
Healthcare, financial services & airfares in PCE come from PPI, not CPI — this is where PCE diverges from CPI. FRED PPIFIS ↗
CPI Headline MoM % — broad inflation contextMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Overall consumer inflation — confirms or tempers the core read. FRED CPIAUCSL ↗
Import Prices MoM % — core-goods pipelineMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Rising import prices feed core-goods PCE. Above +0.3% MoM = goods inflation pressure. FRED IR ↗
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM % — wage/services pressureMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Wages drive services inflation — the stickiest part of Core PCE. Above +0.4% MoM = hot. FRED AHE ↗
Post-release (optional — surprise analysis)
Core PCE Forecast MoM % ⚡
Core PCE Actual MoM % ⚡
Headline PCE MoM % ⚡
Core PCE Forecast auto-fills from the economic-calendar consensus. Core PCE Actual & Headline PCE auto-fill from FRED after the release (late-month, 08:30 ET).
Signal Score & Breakdown
Previous Release
—/10
Awaiting Input
Enter indicators on the left and click Compute
Score Breakdown — Hot vs Cool Inflation Signal
Run analysis to see breakdown
Session History
CPI Surprise Analysis
Indicator Reference — What Each Input Signals
Indicator
Hot PCE Signal (Buy in hike regime)
Cool PCE Signal (Sell in hike regime)
Weight
Released
Core CPI MoM ~75% of Core PCE tracks it — the top predictor
Above +0.3% MoM — firm core inflation
Below +0.15% MoM — cooling
×2 HIGH
~2 weeks before PCE
PPI (Final Demand) MoM Where PCE diverges from CPI — healthcare, financial services, airfares
Above +0.3% MoM — services pipeline hot
Negative — pipeline easing
×2 HIGH
~2 weeks before PCE
CPI Headline MoM Broad inflation context
Above +0.3% MoM — broad inflation firm
Negative — falling
×1 MED
~2 weeks before PCE
Import Prices MoM Core-goods pipeline
Above +0.3% MoM — goods inflation
Below −0.3% MoM — goods deflation
×1 MED
~2 weeks before PCE
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM Wage → services inflation, the sticky part
Above +0.4% MoM — hot wage pressure
Below +0.2% MoM — soft
×1 MED
With NFP, ~3 weeks before PCE
📌 Score 7–10 = strong hot PCE signal (Buy in hike regime — hawkish Fed). Score 0–3 = strong cool PCE signal (Sell in hike regime). Score 4–6 = no clear directional edge. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge — a hot print raises hike/hold odds.
US Core PCE Release Dates · ~08:30 ET · dates approximate — verify at BEA
Verify exact dates at bea.gov — Personal Income & Outlays (Core PCE) releases late each month, ~08:30 ET.