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Quantitative Trading · Producer Prices · v1.5

PPI Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — Oil · Import Prices · Wages · Breakeven

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⏳ Next PPI: --
① Select Current Fed Regime (changes how to interpret signals)
⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: Hot producer prices = pipeline inflation = Fed stays tight. Score 6.5 or more = Hot PPI = Buy Signal. Score 3.5 or less = Cool PPI = Sell Signal. Anything between = no clear signal.
Leading Indicator Inputs
One click fills Oil, Import Prices, Wages & 5Y Breakeven, plus the PPI actual & consensus forecast, then scores.
Input-cost signals released before PPI
Crude Oil (WTI) MoM % — energy inputHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
Energy is a big, volatile chunk of PPI — the largest swing factor. Rising WTI lifts producer energy costs. FRED WTI ↗
Import Prices MoM % — imported input costsHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
Imported inputs feed core-goods producer prices. Above +0.4% MoM = strong goods cost pressure; below −0.4% = goods costs falling. FRED IR ↗
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM % — services & marginsMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Wages drive PPI services and trade margins — the largest, stickiest PPI segment. Above +0.4% MoM = hot. FRED AHE ↗
5-Year Breakeven Inflation % — market pricingMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
The bond market's 5-year inflation forecast (from TIPS). Above ~2.5% = market pricing hotter inflation. FRED T5YIE ↗
Post-release (optional — surprise analysis)
PPI Forecast MoM % ⚡
PPI Actual MoM % ⚡
PPI Forecast auto-fills from the economic-calendar consensus. PPI Actual auto-fills from FRED after the 08:30 ET release.
Signal Score & Breakdown
—/10
Awaiting Input
Press AUTO-FILL ALL LIVE DATA & SCORE — every input fills itself
Expected Reaction Playbook
Press AUTO-FILL to see which markets the signal points to in the current Fed regime.
Score Breakdown — Hot vs Cool Inflation Signal
Run analysis to see breakdown
Session History
Indicator Reference — What Each Input Signals
IndicatorHot PPI Signal (Buy in hike regime)Cool PPI Signal (Sell in hike regime)WeightReleased
Oil (WTI) MoM
Energy — the biggest, most volatile PPI swing		Above +3% MoM — energy pushing PPI upBelow −3% MoM — energy dragging PPI down×2 HIGHReal-time (monthly avg)
Import Prices MoM
Imported input costs → core-goods PPI		Above +0.4% MoM — goods cost pressureBelow −0.4% MoM — goods costs falling×2 HIGH~mid-month, before PPI
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM
Wages → PPI services & trade margins		Above +0.4% MoM — hot services pressureBelow +0.2% MoM — soft×1 MEDWith NFP, ~1st Friday
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Market-implied inflation pricing		Above 2.6% — market pricing hot inflationBelow 2.1% — soft expectations×1 MEDReal-time (daily)
📌 Score 6.5–10 = hot PPI signal (Buy in hike regime). Score 0–3.5 = cool PPI signal (Sell in hike regime). Between 3.5 and 6.5 = no clear directional edge. PPI is released ~1 week before CPI — a hot PPI often previews a hot CPI.
US PPI Release Dates · ~08:30 ET · dates approximate — verify at BLS

Verify exact dates at bls.gov — PPI (Producer Price Index) releases mid-month, ~08:30 ET, usually a day near CPI.