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Quantitative Trading · Producer Prices · v1.0

PPI Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — Oil · Import Prices · Wages · Breakeven

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⏳ Next PPI: --
① Select Current Fed Regime (changes how to interpret signals)
⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: High CPI = more hikes = bond prices fall (yields up), stocks fall. Both assets down day before = market pricing hot CPI = Buy Signal. Both up = pricing cool CPI = Sell Signal.
Leading Indicator Inputs
One click fills Oil, Import Prices, Wages & 5Y Breakeven, plus the PPI actual & consensus forecast, then scores.
Input-cost signals released before PPI
Crude Oil (WTI) MoM % — energy inputHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
Energy is a big, volatile chunk of PPI — the largest swing factor. Rising WTI lifts producer energy costs. FRED WTI ↗
Import Prices MoM % — imported input costsHIGH ×2⚡ Auto
%
Imported inputs feed core-goods producer prices. Above +0.3% MoM = goods cost pressure. FRED IR ↗
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM % — services & marginsMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
Wages drive PPI services and trade margins — the largest, stickiest PPI segment. Above +0.4% MoM = hot. FRED AHE ↗
5-Year Breakeven Inflation % — market pricingMED ×1⚡ Auto
%
The bond market's 5-year inflation forecast (from TIPS). Above ~2.5% = market pricing hotter inflation. FRED T5YIE ↗
Post-release (optional — surprise analysis)
PPI Forecast MoM % ⚡
PPI Actual MoM % ⚡
PPI Forecast auto-fills from the economic-calendar consensus. PPI Actual auto-fills from FRED after the 08:30 ET release.
Signal Score & Breakdown
—/10
Awaiting Input
Enter indicators on the left and click Compute
Score Breakdown — Hot vs Cool Inflation Signal
Run analysis to see breakdown
Session History
Indicator Reference — What Each Input Signals
IndicatorHot PPI Signal (Buy in hike regime)Cool PPI Signal (Sell in hike regime)WeightReleased
Oil (WTI) MoM
Energy — the biggest, most volatile PPI swing		Above +3% MoM — energy pushing PPI upBelow −3% MoM — energy dragging PPI down×2 HIGHReal-time (monthly avg)
Import Prices MoM
Imported input costs → core-goods PPI		Above +0.4% MoM — goods cost pressureNegative — goods costs falling×2 HIGH~mid-month, before PPI
Avg Hourly Earnings MoM
Wages → PPI services & trade margins		Above +0.4% MoM — hot services pressureBelow +0.2% MoM — soft×1 MEDWith NFP, ~1st Friday
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Market-implied inflation pricing		Above 2.6% — market pricing hot inflationBelow 2.1% — soft expectations×1 MEDReal-time (daily)
📌 Score 7–10 = strong hot PPI signal (Buy in hike regime). Score 0–3 = strong cool PPI signal (Sell in hike regime). Score 4–6 = no clear directional edge. PPI is released ~1 week before CPI — a hot PPI often previews a hot CPI.
US PPI Release Dates · ~08:30 ET · dates approximate — verify at BLS

Verify exact dates at bls.gov — PPI (Producer Price Index) releases mid-month, ~08:30 ET, usually a day near CPI.