Quantitative Trading · Inflation Analysis

CPI Signal Pro

Multi-indicator scoring engine — PPI · PCE · Michigan Expectations · Bonds · Equities

Paris --:--:--

🗽 NY --:--:--

⏳ Next CPI: --

① Select Current Fed Regime (changes how to interpret signals)

⚡ Hike/Restrictive mode: High CPI = more hikes = bond prices fall (yields up), stocks fall. Both assets down day before = market pricing hot CPI = Buy Signal. Both up = pricing cool CPI = Sell Signal.

Leading Indicator Inputs

~1–2 weeks before CPI (strongest predictors)

PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM % — Previous MonthHIGH ×2

PPI leads CPI by ~1 month. Above +0.3% MoM = inflation pipeline heating up. TradingEconomics ↗ · Released ~1 week before CPI

PPI Forecast MoM % — for surpriseCONTEXT

Core PCE MoM % — Fed's Preferred MeasureHIGH ×2

The Fed targets PCE at 2% annualized. Above 0.25% MoM = hawkish pressure. BEA / TradingEconomics ↗

Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations %MED ×1.5

Consumer inflation expectations. Above 3.5% = elevated expectations → hot CPI likely. UMich ↗

Day before CPI (market positioning signals)

2-Year Treasury Bond PRICE % Change — Day BeforeMED ×1.5

Use PRICE % change (not yield!). Price down = yield up = market pricing hot CPI. Yahoo ^IRX ↗ or Investing.com ↗

Equities (S&P 500) % Change — Day BeforeMED ×1

Both bonds AND equities down day before = classic hot CPI signal. Yahoo ^GSPC ↗

Post-release (optional — surprise analysis)

CPI Forecast YoY %

CPI Actual YoY %

Core CPI YoY %

Signal Score & Breakdown

—/10

Awaiting Input

Enter indicators on the left and click Compute

Score Breakdown — Hot vs Cool Inflation Signal

Run analysis to see breakdown

Session History

CPI Surprise Analysis

Indicator Reference — What Each Input Signals

Indicator	Hot CPI Signal (Buy in hike regime)	Cool CPI Signal (Sell in hike regime)	Weight	Released
PPI MoM Producer prices → feed into CPI ~1 month later	Above +0.3% — pipeline inflation rising	Negative or near 0% — cost pressures easing	×2 HIGH	~1 week before CPI
Core PCE MoM Fed's actual inflation target	Above 0.25% MoM — Fed hawkish pressure	Below 0.15% MoM — deflation trend	×2 HIGH	Month before (PCE lags)
Michigan Expectations Consumer inflation forecasts — self-fulfilling	Above 3.5% — consumers pricing in high inflation	Below 2.5% — anchored expectations	×1.5 MED	~10 days before CPI
2Y Bond Price Market rate expectations (inverted from yield)	Price down (yield up) — market pricing rate hike	Price up (yield down) — market pricing cuts	×1.5 MED	Day before CPI
Equities Risk sentiment — rate fear	Down — pricing hot CPI / rate hike fear	Up — pricing cool CPI / Fed done	×1 SUPPORT	Day before CPI

 📌 Score 7–10 = strong hot CPI signal (Buy in hike regime). Score 0–3 = strong cool CPI signal (Sell in hike regime). Score 4–6 = no clear directional edge. Core CPI (ex food & energy) is more important than headline — always check both after release. 

Where to Find Each Input

~1 WK BEFORE CPI

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PPI — Producer Price Index

Released by BLS ~1 week before CPI. Use MoM % change. PPI feeds into CPI 1 month later — the strongest leading indicator of CPI direction.

tradingeconomics.com ↗

MONTH BEFORE

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Core PCE — Fed's Target

Fed's preferred inflation metric. Above 2% YoY (or >0.25% MoM) = Fed stays hawkish. Released by the BEA late each month for prior month.

bea.gov / tradingeconomics.com ↗

~10 DAYS BEFORE